The risk policy shall be used by the SSC in conjunction with the ABC control rules in § 648.20(a) through (d) to ensure the MAFMC’s preferred tolerance for the risk of overfishing is addressed in the ABC development and recommendation process.
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(a) Stocks under a rebuilding plan. The probability of not exceeding the F necessary to rebuild the stock within the specified time frame (rebuilding F or FREBUILD) must be at least 50 percent, unless the default level is modified to a higher probability for not exceeding the rebuilding F through the formal stock rebuilding plan. A higher probability of not exceeding the rebuilding F would be expressed as a value greater than 50 percent (e.g., 75-percent probability of not exceeding rebuilding F, which corresponds to a 25-percent probability of exceeding rebuilding F).
(b) Stocks not subject to a rebuilding plan. (1) For stocks with a ratio of biomass (B) to biomass at MSY (BMSY) of 1.0 or lower, the maximum probability of overfishing as informed by the OFL distribution shall decrease linearly from a maximum value of 45 percent until the probability of overfishing becomes zero at a B/BMSY ratio of 0.10.
(2) For stocks with biomass that exceeds BMSY and the B/BMSY ratio is greater than 1.0, the probability of overfishing shall increase linearly from a probability of overfishing of 45 percent to a maximum probability of overfishing of 49 percent when the B/BMSY ratio is equal to 1.5 or greater.
(c) Most restrictive ABC recommendation. (1) Unless otherwise allowed in paragraph (c)(2) or (3) of this section, for instances in which the application of the risk policy approaches in paragraph (b) of this section using OFL distribution results in a more restrictive ABC recommendation than the calculation of ABC derived from the use of FREBUILD at the MAFMC-specified overfishing risk level as outlined in paragraph (a) of this section, the Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) shall recommend to the MAFMC the lower of the ABC values.
(2) The SSC may specify higher 2023-2032 ABCs for Atlantic mackerel based on FREBUILD instead of the methods outlined in paragraph (a) of this section to implement a rebuilding program that would rebuild this stock by 2032.
(3) The SSC may specify higher ABCs for bluefish based on FREBUILD, as outlined in paragraph (a) of this section, instead of the risk policy approaches in paragraph (b) of this section in order to implement a rebuilding program that would rebuild this stock by 2028.
(d) Stock without an OFL or OFL proxy. (1) If an OFL cannot be determined from the stock assessment, or if a proxy is not provided by the SSC during the ABC recommendation process, ABC levels may not be increased until such time that an OFL has been identified.
(2) The SSC may deviate from paragraph (d)(1) of this section, provided that the following two criteria are met: Biomass-based reference points indicate that the stock is greater than BMSY and stock biomass is stable or increasing, or if biomass based reference points are not available, best available science indicates that stock biomass is stable or increasing; and the SSC provides a determination that, based on best available science, the recommended increase to the ABC is not expected to result in overfishing. Any such deviation must include a description of why the increase is warranted, description of the methods used to derive the alternative ABC, and a certification that the ABC is not likely to result in overfishing on the stock.
[76 FR 60616, Sept. 29, 2011, as amended at 77 FR 51857, Aug. 27, 2012; 84 FR 58058, Oct. 30, 2019; 85 FR 81154, Dec. 15, 2020; 86 FR 66981, Nov. 24, 2021; 87 FR 6670, Feb. 1, 2023]
