(a) A contractor must be able to sustain a sufficient cash flow to perform the contract. When there is doubt regarding the sufficiency of a contractor’s cash flow, the contracting officer should require the contractor to submit a cash flow forecast covering the duration of the contract.

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(b) A contractor’s inability of refusal to prepare and provide cash flow forecasts or to reconcile actual cash flow with previous forecasts is a strong indicator of serious managerial deficiencies or potential contract cost or performance problems.

(c) Single or one-time cash flow forecasts are of limited forecasting power. As such, they should be limited to preaward survey situations. Reliability of cash flow forecasts can be established only by comparing a series of previous actual cash flows with the corresponding forecasts and examining the causes of any differences.

(d) Cash flow forecasts must—

(1) Show the origin and use of all material amounts of cash within the entire business unit responsible for contract performance, period by period, for the length of the contract (or until the risk of a cash crisis ends); and

(2) Provide an audit trail to the data and assumptions used to prepare it.

(e) Cash flow forecasts can be no more reliable than the assumptions on which they are based. Most important of these assumptions are—

(1) Estimated amounts and timing of purchases and payments for materials, parts, components, subassemblies, and services;

(2) Estimated amounts and timing of payments of purchase or production of capital assets, test facilities, and tooling;

(3) Amounts and timing of fixed cash charges such as debt installments, interest, rentals, taxes, and indirect costs;

(4) Estimated amounts and timing of payments for projected labor, both direct and indirect;

(5) Reasonableness of projected manufacturing and production schedules;

(6) Estimated amounts and timing of billings to customers (including progress payments), and customer payments;

(7) Estimated amounts and timing of cash receipts from lenders or other credit sources, and liquidation of loans; and

(8) Estimated amount and timing of cash receipt from other sources.

(f) The contracting officer should review the assumptions underlying the cash flow forecasts. In determining whether the assumptions are reasonable and realistic, the contracting officer should consult with—

(1) The contractor;

(2) Government personnel in the areas of finance, engineering, production, cost, and price analysis; or

(3) Prospective supply, subcontract, and loan or credit sources.

[63 FR 11536, Mar. 9, 1998]