(1) This section applies only to Metro.

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(2)(a) Metro shall demonstrate that its regional framework plan provides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years:

(A) At periodic review under ORS § 197.628 to 197.651;

(B) As scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development Commission at least once each six years; or

(C) At any other legislative review of the regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use.

(b) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the review under paragraph (a) of this subsection.

(3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, Metro shall:

(a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and

(b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS § 197A.348 and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years.

(4)(a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, ‘buildable lands’ includes:

(A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use;

(B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use;

(C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and

(D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment.

(b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, Metro must demonstrate consideration of:

(A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation;

(B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facilities, if the written contract or easement is provided to Metro;

(C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel; and

(D) Factors that influence available housing supply, including short-term rentals, second homes and vacation homes.

(c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, Metro shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands.

(5)(a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and (c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last review under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section. The data shall include:

(A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred;

(B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development;

(C) Market factors that may substantially impact future urban residential development; and

(D) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section.

(b) Metro shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this subsection using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if Metro finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity. The shorter time period may not be less than three years.

(c) Metro shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. Metro must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this paragraph.

(6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section, Metro shall take one or both of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need:

(a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, Metro shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and Metro that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary.

(b) Amend its regional framework plan, functional plan or land use regulations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without expansion of the urban growth boundary. If Metro takes this action, Metro shall adopt findings regarding the density expectations assumed to result from measures adopted under this paragraph based upon the factors listed in ORS § 197A.348 (2) and data in subsection (5)(a) of this section. The density expectations may not project an increase in residential capacity above achieved density by more than three percent without quantifiable validation of such departures. A quantifiable validation must demonstrate that the assumed housing capacity has been achieved in areas within Metro that are zoned to allow no greater than the same authorized density level, as defined in ORS § 227.175.

(7) Using the housing need analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, Metro shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, Metro, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years.

(8) Metro shall determine the density and mix of housing types anticipated as a result of actions taken under subsections (6) and (7) of this section and monitor and record the actual density and mix of housing types achieved following the adoption of these actions. Metro shall compare actual and anticipated density and mix. Metro shall submit its comparison to the commission at the next review of its urban growth boundary under subsection (2)(a) of this section.

(9) In establishing that actions and measures adopted under subsections (6) and (7) of this section demonstrably increase the likelihood of higher density residential development, Metro shall at a minimum ensure that land zoned for needed housing is in locations appropriate for the housing types identified under subsection (3) of this section, is zoned at density ranges that are likely to be achieved by the housing market using the analysis in subsection (3) of this section and is in areas where sufficient urban services are planned to enable the higher density development to occur over the 20-year period. Actions or measures, or both, may include those actions listed in ORS § 197A.100 (3). [Formerly 197.296]